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This paper aims to assess the quality of interest rate forecasts for the money markets in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico and Venezuela for the period between 2001 and 2019. Future interest rate trends are of key significance for many business-related decisions. Thus, reliable interest rate forecasts are essential, for example, for banks that make profits by carrying out maturity transformations.

The data that we analyze were collected by Consensus Economics through a monthly survey with over 120 renowned economists and were published between 2001 and 2019 in the journal Latin American Consensus Forecasts. The authors use the Diebold-Mariano test, the sign accuracy test, the TOTA coefficient and the unbiasedness test to determine the precision and biasedness of the forecasts.

The research reveals that the forecasting work carried out in Brazil, Chile and Mexico is remarkably successful. The quality of forecasts from Argentina and Venezuela, on the other hand, is significantly poorer.

Over 50 studies have already been published with regard to the accuracy of interest rate forecasts, emphasizing the importance of the topic. However, interest rate forecasts for Latin American money markets have hardly been considered thus far. The paper closes this research gap. Overall, the analyzed database amounts to a total of 209 forecast time series with 28,451 individual interest rate forecasts. This study is thus far more comprehensive than all previous studies.

Politics is ubiquitous in every crisis, and public health issues have always been weaponised to advance political mileage of leaders. This chapter first analyses the link between COVID-19 and populism in the Philippines and Malaysia. During the coronavirus pandemic, an exodus of opportunistic leaders in both countries took advantage of the health crisis to cement their control and maintain power. Strong and charismatic leadership helped Filipino populist politicians spread their influence with solid support from the people and less resistance from the opposition. Meanwhile, Islamist populism and ethnonationalism were utilised by Malaysian leaders to secure authority and earn people’s recognition. Then, it explores how generations of national issues, such as corruption, inequality, and instability, also contributed to the rise of populist leaders in the Philippines and Malaysia. Finally, the chapter argues that the future of populism in these countries will remain strong due to the vulnerability of the people. In one way or another, COVID-19 and populism affect global movements, not just political and social, considering their generational and historical developments. The chapter seeks to answer the following question: what factors contributed to the rise of populism, and what are the future of populism in both countries?

The adaptive reuse of heritage has the potential to socially and culturally re-signify dilapidated or suspended structures in the urban landscape. However, the scope of adaptive reuse could be broadened to include the constellation of infrastructure such as water and sewerage system, waste disposal facilities, power and communication plants and networks that support urban life but whose access – and maintenance patterns – remain the preserve of specialized technicians.

A conversation with some of the architects from the raumlabor collective involved in the Floating University Berlin project, about the stormwater detention basin of the former Berlin Tempelhof airport, provides an insight into the mechanisms by which adaptive reuse can also concern the infrastructural world in operation.

In Tempelhof's change of function from an international airport to a large abandoned urban space and then to a park, the detention basin has never ceased to function. But the subsequent process of reuse has reshaped the patterns of maintenance of the reservoir, leaving room for first non-human and then unskilled human action.

From this still overlooked reading perspective, it becomes clear how precisely flexible reuse, consisting of a constantly renegotiated interweaving of violated protocols and backward steps, allows the scope of adaptive reuse to be extended to infrastructures in operation. From secret domains of nature's transformation, they become places of openness in which to experience and better understand the entanglement of contemporary socio-ecological relations that underlie the urban condition.

This study aims to explore how the attitudes, motivations and practices of informal entrepreneurs, who choose service exclusion, prevent them from recognizing and taking advantage of transformative opportunities and embracing change.

The authors conducted a two-year study to explore five types of informal entrepreneurs (musicians, street vendors, artists, owners of informal smoke shops and street food vendors). The authors used semi-structured interviews and applied thematic analysis (ATA) of popular music and narratives to shed light on their attitudes, motivations and practices.

The study shows how potential service participants freely exclude themselves from services and transformative service initiatives, preventing them from realizing opportunities and embracing change that can improve their well-being. The study also demonstrates that to serve human needs fairly, service designers need to recognize that some actors require more attention and resources than others to achieve their potential.

The study challenges the notion that any population experiencing vulnerability wants help and chooses to participate in transformative service initiatives. Service participants can, in fact, exclude themselves from services and transformative service initiatives by free will, demonstrating that service exclusion is a multidirectional phenomenon, not unidirectional. Additionally, the paper analyzes narratives gathered from aesthetic expressions, using principles of ATA, introducing music thematic analysis as a research approach.

We investigate the reasons why income inequality is so high in Spain in the EU context. We first show that the differential in inequality with Germany and other countries is driven by inequality among households who participate in the labor market. Then, we conduct an analysis of different household income aggregates. We also decompose the inter-country gap in inequality into characteristics and coefficients effects using regressions of the Recentered Influence Function for the Gini index. Our results show that the higher inequality observed in Spain is largely associated with lower employment rates, higher incidence of self-employment, lower attained education, as well as the recent increase in the immigration of economically active households. However, the prevalence of extended families in Spain contributes to reducing inequality by diversifying income sources, with retirement pensions playing an important role. Finally, by comparing the situations in 2008 and 2012, we separate the direct effects of the Great Recession on employment and unemployment benefits, from other more permanent factors (such as the weak redistributive effect of taxes and family or housing allowances, or the roles of education and the extended family).

This paper highlights to what extent an emporium of solidarity may affect poverty conditions of its recipients, and whether it generates net social benefits to different actors involved.

To evaluate the effect of an emporium of solidarity project on poverty conditions of its recipients, we run Probit estimation models. As for the efficiency evaluation, we develop instead a social cost–benefit framework which considers benefits and costs to different actors somehow involved in the program. Results are based on survey data collected by the authors and administrative data.

Using the emporium attendance length as a measure of the treatment intensity, results underscore that the emporium significantly reduces the monetary poverty only, while it is ineffective on the severe material deprivation. The robustness of our results is confirmed by the implementation of a propensity score matching estimator. Our study suggests that emporia can be efficient in term of resources usage and they can determine positive returns to actors involved, implementing a redistribution of goods toward poor households.

The paper and its conclusions are based on a case study, thus an Italian emporium called “Portobello” and located in the inner-city area of Modena (Emilia-Romagna region, Italy).

The main novelty of our paper to the literature consists of the elaboration of a first comprehensive framework for the social impact assessment of an emporium of solidarity, regarding both its effects on socio-economic conditions of poor recipient households and its contribution to the local welfare as a whole.

Despite its volume, the academic research on the impact of electronic word of mouth (eWOM) on tourism and hospitality consumer behaviour is fragmented and largely limited to investigating a small scope of its impact. The purpose of this paper is to bridge this gap by synthesising the existing literature, providing a conceptual framework for the various dimensions of this impact.

This paper is based on the meta-synthesis and a critical conceptual analysis of relevant academic literature identified using a keyword search of papers via the Web of Science and Scopus databases, followed by a snowballing process comprising tracking the citations to the resources referred to in the identified papers.

This conceptual analysis illustrates how the full spectrum of the impact of eWOM on tourist behaviour spans well beyond the limited scope traditionally focussed on by tourism and hospitality researchers. This scope, encompassing multiple cognitive, normative and affective dimensions, is illustrated in an evidence-based conceptual framework proposed in this paper, providing a systematic tool to identify the less-studied aspects of this important phenomenon.

This paper synthesises the large and fragmented body of literature on eWOM and proposes a novel conceptual framework, illustrating the vast scope of the various cognitive, affective and normative mechanisms through which eWOM affects consumers’ choice of tourism and hospitality products. Furthermore, this paper provides a synthesis of the state-of-the-art of research in this field, highlights the existing gaps and provides researchers with a systematic tool to identify pathways towards breaking the status-quo in progressing beyond the current boundaries of academic research in this field.

游客感知对清真旅游目的地的影响：结构模型分析

尽管有大量研究, 但有关网络口碑eWOM对旅游业和酒店业消费者行为的影响的学术研究仍是零散的, 并且在很大程度上只限于调查其影响的一小部分。本文的目的是通过综合现有文献来弥合这种差距, 为这种影响的各个方面提供概念框架。

本文基于元合成法和对相关学术文献的关键性, 概念性分析。这些文献是通过Web of Science和Scopus数据库对文章进行关键字搜索而确定的。随后是滚雪球式搜索过程, 该过程包括跟踪对已识别文章中引用的资源的引用。

这项概念分析阐述了eWOM对游客行为的影响范围如何远远超出了旅游和酒店业研究人员传统上关注的有限范围。这一范围是基于有理论依据的的概念框架提出的, 并涵盖多个认知, 规范和情感的维度。此范围为识别这一重要且缺乏研究的现象提供了系统的工具。

本文综合了有关eWOM的大量零散文献, 并提出了一个新颖的概念框架, 阐明了eWOM影响消费者选择旅游和酒店产品的各种认知, 情感和规范机制的范围。此外, 本文提供了该领域最新的研究综述, 突出了现有的差距, 并为研究人员提供了系统的识别打破现状的途径, 以超越当前学术界在这个领域的研究局限。

关键字 电子口碑, eWOM, WOM, 酒店, 旅游, 口碑

研究论文

El Boca a Boca Electrónico en el Comportamiento del Consumidor Turístico y Hotelero: Estado del Arte

A pesar del gran volumen de investigación académica sobre el impacto de eWOM en el comportamiento del consumidor turístico y hotelero, esta se encuentra fragmentada y en gran medida se limita a investigar un pequeño alcance de su impacto. El propósito de este artículo, es cerrar esta brecha sintetizando la literatura existente y proporcionando un marco conceptual para las diversas dimensiones de este impacto.

Este documento se basa en un análisis metasíntesis crítico y conceptual de la literatura relevante académica identificada, mediante una búsqueda de artículos por palabras claves a través de las bases de datos de Web of Science y Scopus, seguido de un proceso de “bola de nieve” que comprende el seguimiento de las citas de los recursos mencionados en los artículos identificados.

Este análisis conceptual, ilustra cómo el espectro total del impacto de eWOM en el comportamiento turístico se extiende mucho más allá del limitado alcance que tradicionalmente han realizado investigadores del turismo y hoteles. Este nuevo alcance, que abarca múltiples dimensiones cognitivas, normativas y afectivas, se ilustra en un marco conceptual basado en la evidencia propuesta en este documento, que proporciona una herramienta sistemática para identificar los aspectos menos estudiados de este importante fenómeno.

Este documento sintetiza la gran cantidad de literatura fragmentada sobre eWOM y propone un marco conceptual novedoso, que ilustra el amplio alcance de los diversos mecanismos cognitivos, afectivos y normativos a través de los cuales eWOM afecta la elección de los consumidores de productos turísticos y hoteleros. Además, este documento proporciona una síntesis del estado de la investigación en este campo, destaca las brechas existentes y brinda a los investigadores una herramienta sistemática para identificar vías para romper el statu quo en el progreso más allá de los límites académicos actuales en este campo.

Boca a boca electrónica, eWOM, WOM, Industria hoteleram, Turismo, Boca a boca

– Trabajo de investigación

Looks at how an undergraduate had to fill in the gaps to be a success by validating research ‐ using the big names of scientific history to relate the corresponding work. Gives anecdotes of the authors’ progress and the teachers who were most noteworthy in aiding him. Uses tables to emphasize certain points about the environment and various other mathematical and scientific ideas. Emphasizes the importance of other experts’ work in this field.

This book has brought together contributions which highlight two very important themes in higher education (HE) – neoliberalism and inclusion. These themes have been examined specifically within the context of the Bologna Process (BP), although the issues raised also speak to other education policy contexts beyond Bologna. These themes are discussed in seven chapters – at the international level and in six different national contexts. At the international level, attention has been paid to tracing the conceptualisation and the evolution of inclusion and neoliberalism in key BP policy documents at different phases of the process (see Chapter 2). At the national level, these themes have been examined within the national contexts of Slovakia, Spain, Turkey, Scotland and Cameroon with different connections and relationships to the European Higher Education Area (EHEA). In this concluding Chapter, we elaborate further on these themes, their relationship to each other based on the case studies covered and explore how inclusion discourses evolved in the neoliberal context of the BP while drawing attention to aspects of the inclusion agenda that require further attention. As the compilation stage of this book coincided with Russia's invasion of Ukraine, we also reflect on the implications of this invasion for social justice and neoliberalism in the BP through actions taken by the EHEA.